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Oil Spike to $106 Pushes Fed Hike Odds to 64% as Crypto Sells Off
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Oil Spike to $106 Pushes Fed Hike Odds to 64% as Crypto Sells Off

Brent crude surged past $106 a barrel and long-dated Treasury yields hit multi-year highs Thursday, as traders lifted the odds of a Fed rate hike next week to

September 19, 2026Source: thedefiant.io

Almost every large crypto token declined through the overnight sessions and into Thursday's U.S. open, as an oil shock drove long-dated Treasury yields to multi-year highs and traders raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week to 64%.

Traders put a quarter-point September increase at 52.5% at 8 a.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published August producer prices at 8:30 a.m. The same contract traded at 62.5% by 11 a.m. and 63.5% by early afternoon. Brent crude, up 11.7% in eight sessions, sits underneath both the inflation print and the yield move.

Bitcoin last changed hands at $77,120, down 2.1% over 24 hours and 5.1% over seven days, after trading between $76,748 and $78,774, according to CoinGecko data. Ether was at $2,448.88, down 1.9% on the day and 2.7% on the week. XRP fell 4.8% to $1.35; Solana declined 3.6% to $99.69; BNB dropped 4.4% to $708.37. Total crypto market value stood at $2.64 trillion on $94.2 billion of volume, with bitcoin dominance at 58.5%.

Brent crude traded at $106.83 a barrel on Thursday afternoon, up 5.6% on the day and its highest level since May 19. The contract has risen 11.7% since Sept. 2, when it settled at $95.63.

Tanker Strikes and Shipping Advisory

U.S. Central Command said on Sept. 8 that its forces "destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days," according to the command's public release. The release names the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1, M/T Riesco and M/T Derya, placing four of the strikes in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, and says crews were directed to abandon ship before the vessels were hit. It does not mention the Strait of Hormuz. A Sept. 5 release describes three earlier tanker strikes.

The U.S. Maritime Administration published advisory 2026-011 on Sept. 9, stating that "Iran continues to threaten and conduct strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and Gulf of Oman." The advisory replaced 2026-004, which expired the same day, making it a scheduled six-month renewal rather than a response to this week's strikes.

The Energy Information Administration's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending Sept. 4 was set to publish at 12 p.m. ET Thursday, delayed from Wednesday by the Sept. 7 federal holiday, according to the agency. The most recent report, for the week ending Aug. 28, recorded commercial crude inventories down 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million, a figure that predates both sets of strikes.

Inflation and Bond Market Reaction

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that "the Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 0.4 percent in August, seasonally adjusted," against 0.1% in July and a 0.1% decline in June, in its Sept. 10 release. Final demand prices rose 5.4% over 12 months. Core prices, excluding foods, energy and trade services, rose 0.3% on the month and 4.7% over the year.

"The figures reinforced concerns that inflation remains persistent, particularly given the combination of elevated oil prices and a labour market that has proved to be more robust than anticipated," said Thadeu Dos Santos, regional director at brokerage Infinox, in commentary sent to The Defiant on Thursday morning.

Bond yields moved with the data. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.92% on Thursday, its highest since Oct. 25, 2023. The 30-year reached 5.34%, above every daily close of the past five years. Treasury's official daily curve put the 10-year at 4.83% and the 30-year at 5.28% at Wednesday's close, both the highest readings of the month.

Polymarket priced a quarter-point increase at the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting at 63.5% and no change at 36.5%, with a half-point or larger increase at 0.85% and a quarter-point cut at 0.35%, on $113 million of volume across the event. The quarter-point increase contract alone has traded $21.6 million. That contract was at 41.5% on Sept. 3 and first crossed 50% on Sept. 4.

Read the original report at The Defiant

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