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U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Shed 23,000 Jobs in July

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, defying forecasts for an 83,000 gain, as the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% amid a shrinking labor force, the

7 августа 2026 г.Источник: cnbc.com

The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, an unexpected decline that came alongside a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by a seasonally adjusted 23,000 for the month, compared with a downwardly revised 20,000 decline for June. The Dow Jones consensus forecast had called for a gain of 83,000. The labor force participation rate fell further to 61.4%, its lowest level in more than five years.

May's job count was also revised down to 63,000, or 66,000 lower than the prior estimate. The revisions brought the 12-month average job gain down to just 34,000. "The July employment report solidified that the labor market is not out of the woods quite yet," said Nicole Bachaud, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter.

Sector breakdown

  • Local government education: -50,000
  • Retail: -19,000
  • Financial activities: -14,000
  • Leisure and hospitality: -40,000, possibly tied to the World Cup tournament ending
  • Healthcare: +22,000, below its 12-month average of 36,000
  • Construction: +22,000

Private payrolls rose by 30,000 for the month while government jobs declined by 53,000. Average hourly earnings increased by just 2 cents, bringing the 12-month wage growth average down to 3.2%, below the forecast 3.5% and the lowest since May 2021.

The report lands as Federal Reserve officials remain split on the path for interest rates, with inflation still above the central bank's 2% target. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 last week to hold its benchmark rate. Following the jobs data, traders lowered their odds for a September rate hike to 44% and for October to 58.3%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge. Dow futures rose close to 200 points and Treasury yields fell on expectations of a more dovish Fed stance.

"This morning's report is a game changer in the sense that all of the recent focus has been on inflation and this report highlights the risks that are embedded in the labor market as well," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management.

Household employment fell by 87,000, while the unemployment rate declined due to a 264,000 drop in the labor force. Outside the Covid era, the participation rate is at its lowest since the mid-1976. "While the unemployment rate is falling, that is mostly for the wrong reason—not enough workers," said Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist at Fifth Third Commercial Bank. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 58.9%, its lowest level.

Source: CNBC

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